More than one study suggests not.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) the average life expectancy has been increasing ever since 1900, dipping only slightly during the two world wars. But for now, at least, the progress has stopped. Life expectancy at birth peaked in 2014 at 78.9 years. For the next couple of years life expectancy actually inched down, to 78.7.
Of course, we're not all the same. If you're a 65-year-old man you've only got 18 more years. If you're lucky enough to be a woman you can expect to live another 21 years.
Then Covid hit. In 2020 life expectancy dropped to 77.2, and in 2021 it dipped again to 76.6.
The more relevant number for us, however, might be average life expectancy at age 65 -- which of course is much higher since we've already survived plenty of slings and arrows. So for people who are now 65, you on average can expect to live to 84.6.
There are a lot of individual differences. Unfortunately, a lot of us are not as healthy as we could be. In my own case, I'm healthier than my mother, who got breast cancer in her 60s (but lived to age 89), but I'm not as healthy as my dad who was perfectly fine until just a few months before he died at age 91.
A RAND study from 2019 focused on a group of people age 54 - 60 (who are now age 57 - 63). Comparing measurements to a similar study from 1992 the survey found "particularly large increases in rates of obesity, diabetes and, perhaps surprisingly, self-reported pain levels." The study also found more people in this age group had difficulty performing routine daily activities. The conclusion: on average we are not as healthy as our parents were at our age.
The silver lining to the health cloud: fewer people are smoking compared to 1992. Only 8% of people age 65 or over currently smoke cigarettes.
Obesity seems to present the biggest health issue. The share of older people with class II obesity, defined as a BMI of over 35, tripled from 5% to 15% between 1992 and 2016. And class II obesity brings on a full plate of health issues, including "very high risk level of diabetes."
The study also showed a growing health disparity based on education and income. The middle class is getting sicker, but the poor are getting sicker even faster. Part of the disparity is behavioral. In general, poorer people smoke more, drink more, take more drugs, are more obese. Part of the disparity is situational. Poorer people tend to live in more dangerous neighborhoods; they suffer more environmental problems such as smog and tainted water; they have less access to doctors and medical facilities.
The surprising conclusion, however, is that despite a temporary longevity setback from Covid, and a persistent problem from obesity, diabetes and heart disease, as well as other factors such as depression, accidents and crime, the experts expect our average longevity to once again start to increase.
Largely this is due to advances in science and medicine. Or as the study puts it, "It may be that the health of individuals in their late 50s declined over time due to increasing levels of unhealthy behavior, but that continually improving medical technology has offset these behaviors."
In other words, the medical establishment is saving us from ourselves. And Medicare is paying for it. Thank you all! But after reading all these reports, I'm beginning to worry that we'll end up living for a long time, but our lives will turn out to be an endless series of aches and pains and medical problems. Who wants to live to be 90 if we have to guzzle drugs with nasty side-effects and keep getting poked with painful procedures that are embarrassing and humiliating?
So I'm beginning to think that maybe I should shed a few pounds. (My BMI clocks in at 27, which tips me into the "overweight" category -- you can calculate your own BMI at this BMI calculator.) Maybe I should make a point of getting more exercise on a more consistent basis. And maybe I should do what my mother always told me -- lay off the sweets and eat my vegetables.
11 comments:
Whoa. My BMI is way high. Good to know. I need to get after it. My mother and grandmother passed away around 83 so I'm using that as my life expectancy just to remind myself there is still time to do plenty of things - even start a new bucket list.
Ahh, finally a normal BMI. Thanks for that calculator. I don't think I am healthier than my parents but I have access to much better medical care that lets me live with the diseases they had much longer.
My dad died at 57 of emphysema and cirrhosis - lifestyle choices made back in the 40s and 50s. My mother passed at 86 after years of refusing to take any medication for her blood pressure. I look at 86 as about right for me (I'm 73 now), but the aches and pains I'm already experiencing I'm not all that keen on experiencing another 13 years of it. Weight loss will probably help. I should do better at that.
My BMI is 23, and I have to work at keeping my weight down. Both of my parents died of heart disease in their sixties, so I have already outlived them both. I think that the way my aches and pains have increased since I turned 75 that 90 would be an uncomfortable goal to attain. But I'm gonna try!
My dad had died of heart failure by the time he was my current age. My mom died at 93, physically strong for most of her life but suffered from mental illness and then dementia in the final years. So far my physical and mental health are okay, but I know the clock is ticking all the same.
My mom was 89 and my dad 90. Obesity is definitely a factor. I eat healthily and walk an hour every day but still need to lose my belly fat. It's not easy. Otherwise, I don't take any meds and feel fine. Moving your body every day makes a huge difference.
Hi Tom, I feel fortunate to have been able to retire early, and keeping healthy is an important part of being able to make the best of this. I think I do a good job at keeping fit and eating (mostly) healthily and I feel good about these decisions. This doesn't guarantee good health, but I think I'm at least stacking the odds in my favour.
My mother dies of cancer in her fifties my father in mid-eighties which I attribute to picking up cigar smoking later in life (he inhaled, seriously!).
My BMI wasn't a shock. I do need to lose the Covid weight and have applied myself in the last month to doing just that. Due to pain I can't exercise much which is frustrating. The unexplained pains of old age (I'll be 79 in August) drive me mad. those I admire commit themselves to daily "workouts". While I admire this discipline it evades me.
Great post Tom.
XO
WWW
My father died at 80 but my mother lived to 99. My BMI is way too high but working on it. While I have a sister who is 80, I lost a brother when he was 57 and a sister when she was 65. Both were smokers. I quit smoking 20 years ago, so I hop that's upping my timeline on earth!
Somehow I missed this posting, Tom. But reading it now and checking your calculator, my BMI is 20.6... so I'm guessing that's normal. DH and I will both be 77 next month. We are relatively healthy - both having Cancer at some point, but beating it so far. My dad died at 75 of Gall Bladder Cancer, Sister at 51 of Ovarian Cancer, Brother at 59 of Pancreatic Cancer. Mom lived to be 94 and was physically strong, but Alzheimer's took her in the end. I guess we're lucky to have gotten to 77 and doing well... although I have to admit that we have slowed down this last year. I would hope to stay around for another 5 - 10 years, but only if physically and mentally fit.
Just saw this. Thanks for the BMI calculator. I got 25, at the tippy top of the healthy weight range. My Mom died at 74, she had asthma, emphysema and just couldn't quit smoking. I just passed 80, don't smoke. Dad made it to 85 and died from a heart problem. So who knows? I have really slowed down after the last two years. Maybe it it stops raining here I'll get back outside but so far I'm not inspired. :-)
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