"I can't be a pessimist, because I'm alive. To be a pessimist means that you have agreed that human life is an academic matter." -- James Baldwin

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Universal Truths

     I ran across this list of "Universal Truths" while I Stumbled through the Internet the other day. (I signed up for Stumble last year; rarely use it, but it's the ultimate time waster if you're interested.) The list was first published sometime last year so some people may have already seen it. But even if you have, it's worth another visit.

     A few I liked best:

     *  I  think part of a best friend's job should be to immediately clear your computer history if you die.

     *  How in the hell are you supposed to fold a fitted sheet?

     * MapQuest really needs to start their directions on #5. I'm pretty sure I know how to get out of my own neighborhood.

     *  Obituaries would be a lot more interesting if they told you how the person died.

     *  Bad decisions make good stories.

      * I have a hard time deciphering the fine line between boredom and hunger.

     The full list of observations was apparently first published on a site called ruminations. I couldn't find it there, but it has been repeated on several sites, from a Civil War forum (why, I don't know) to this one:  32 Undeniable Truths for Mature Humans.

     The list inspired me to come up with a few of my own:

     *  I never, ever touch the pictures hanging on the living-room walls. So how do they get crooked?

     *  Why is it that the driver ahead of me is always going too slow, and the guy behind me is always going too fast?

     *  We know books are living things. They multiply in the bookcase overnight.    

     *  I'd sure like to get my hands on the guy who designed bathroom tiles so they get slippery when they're wet.

     *  A flower dies when you cut it down. A weed grows stronger.

     *  My computer works 99.9 percent of the time. It only crashes when I haven't saved an important file.

     *  I knew I wasn't as young as I thought when I realized that the old lady holding up the checkout line at the supermarket ... was younger than me.

     *  Why does every comedy at the movies insist on showing a throw up scene?

     Okay, maybe mine are not the greatest. So if you have any personal frustrations, common pitfalls, human weaknesses or interesting peccadilloes, would love to hear about them. Add them to the list. Meantime, I'll try not to fall over my own feet.
  

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Okay, I'm a Sucker Too

     I went to business school in the late 1970s when one of the principle assumptions about people is that they are rational creatures. They seek to maximize the benefit of any transaction they make, from buying a soda to deciding whether or not to get married. This evolved into the efficient market theory, which claims that the price of something -- particularly stocks, bonds and commodities -- reflects everything that everyone knows about the situation at hand.

     Now that I'm older and have some worldly experience, I realize that this economic assumption is terribly naive and simplistic. But, really, I always knew in my gut that people are not that rational. And to just proclaim that prices reflect all known information has to be some kind of tautology. I'm not even sure what a tautology is, as a technical epistemological term, but it has something to do with circular reasoning, that the conclusion is embedded in the question, that the premise is "logical" but it makes no sense in the real world.

     But consider this:  A study at UCLA has shown that the price of orange juice futures is a more accurate predictor of the weather in Florida than the actual weather report. It seems that all those people betting on the future of Florida weather, who've put their money where their mouth is, do a better job sifting through all the information and making a prediction, than the people who are consulting their computers and their weather maps and reporting their conclusions to the weather bureau.

     But then, how do you explain the NASDAQ bubble of the late 1990s, or the housing bubble of the early 2000s? Or, perhaps, the gold bubble of today? (What do you do with gold anyway? I don't get it.)

     I know how to explain it. People are crazy! You gotta love 'em, but they believe in all kinds of nutty theories; they base a lot of decisions on emotions rather than facts; they select the information they want to believe based on their own prejudices and personal experiences; they tend to follow the herd. Some people are too stupid to pursue their own best economic interests. Some people are just too lazy.

     Yale economist Robert Shiller explains the irrationality of bubbles by saying they are a kind of Ponzi scheme. The people who get in early on a bubble identify a legitimate economic situation, and they make a lot of money as other people recognize the opportunity and bid up prices. Eventually prices outrun the original economic thesis -- yet prices keep going up, just because investors see prices rising and assume they will keep going up and so they continue to jump in. But inevitably people realize the new economics don't support the new prices. The bubble bursts and prices plunge, until all but the original investors who got in at a low price lose money. These bubble prices are not efficient. They are illusory.

     The fact is, people have limited ability to obtain information and figure out what it means. They act on their emotions; and their behavior is influenced by cultural influences; or their own sense of self-worth. How else to explain why a person pays an exorbitant price for a car, or a collectible, just to prove that they can afford it? That's not rational, that's egotistical. Or what about people's lack of self-control -- when they order a third martini, even though they know they shouldn't, or buy yet another pair of shoes when they have no use for them?

     Still not convinced? Just reflect on how many people believe in astrology, or UFOs or that Paul is still dead. Or that the world is going to end today, or tomorrow, or the next day.

     There's a lot of stupidity out there, a lot of gullibility, a lot of paranoia. A lot of emotion. And yours truly is not immune to letting emotions overrule his rationality. For example, I know that traveling in an airplane is the safest form of transportation, that you're more likely to die in the car on the way to the airport than you are in the airplane on the way to California. Nevertheless, you won't find me on an airplane anytime soon. No one's going to lock me into an aluminum can and send me 30,000 feet up in the air with a pilot who's probably been drinking, a maintenance crew that's on a work slowdown and an air traffic controller who's sawing wood in the control tower.

      I understand my view toward airplanes is not rational. Nevertheless, that's how I feel.

     There is one exception to this rule. It's that new putter down at the GolfPro store. I'm a mediocre golfer and a lousy putter. I've been through at least 20 putters in my day, and each time I've been absolutely certain that the new putter will transform my golf game. Each time I've been tragically disappointed.

     However, that new putter down at GolfPro has such a great feel to it. It fits my hands perfectly. Plus, it's $140, which is twice as much as I've ever spent on a putter before. If it's that expensive, it gotta work. Don't you think?

     [A slightly different version of this article was first published as "I'm a Sucker, but Not for Gold" on Technorati.]

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Your Name Doesn't Lie

      If you are a female Baby Boomer, born in or around 1950, you are most likely named Linda. Your daughter, born circa 1980, is Jennifer. And your granddaughter, born in 2010, is Isabella.

     If you're a man born around 1950, you're probably a James. Your son is named Michael, and your grandson might be Jacob.

     Okay, perhaps that's extrapolating a bit too far. But your name does tell the world how old you are. If your name is Barbara, it's likely you were born in the 1940s, when Barbara was the 2nd or 3rd most popular girl's name -- and not in the 1990s, when it was more like the 300th most popular girl's name. If your name is Jennifer, you were probably born in the 1970s. Jennifer was the No. 1 girl's name from 1970 to 1984 (thanks in large part to the 1970 movie Love Story, based on the bestselling book by Erich Segal).

     A report out earlier this month from the Social Security Administration catalogued the top ten most popular names for babies born in the U. S in 2010. And as you might guess, they look very different from the names we grew up with.

     According to the Social Security Administration, the most popular boys and girls names back when we were babies in 1950 were:

Popularity in 1950

Rank Male name Female name
1 James Linda
2 Robert Mary
3 John Patricia
4 Michael Barbara
5 David Susan
6 William Nancy
7 Richard Deborah
8 Thomas Sandra
9 Charles Carol
10 Gary Kathleen

     By 1980, about the time we were naming out kids, things had changed:

Popularity in 1980

Rank Male name Female name
1 Michael Jennifer
2 Christopher Amanda
3 Jason Jessica
4 David Melissa
5 James Sarah
6 Matthew Heather
7 Joshua Nicole
8 John Amy
9 Robert Elizabeth
10 Joseph Michelle

     Hey, what happened to Thomas?  My name was 8th most popular back in the good old days. By 1980 it had dropped out of the top ten list, down to No. 25.

     Names have changed even more since 1980. Today's most popular sobriquets -- the ones our kids are giving to their kids -- are:

Popularity in 2010

Rank Male name Female name
1 Jacob Isabella
2 Ethan Sophia
3 Michael Emma
4 Jayden Olivia
5 William Ava
6 Alexander Emily
7 Noah Abigail
8 Daniel Madison
9 Aiden Chloe
10 Anthony Mia


     Thomas has now dropped to No. 62. Well, I was actually named after my grandfather (something people seem to do less often these days), but the point is, I prefer to think that instead of losing popularity, my name has simply become more rare and distinctive -- kind of like how Ethan or Alexander was back in 1950.

     But the fact is, to most people, my name just signifies that I'm probably in my 60s.

     Anyway, you can look up the relative popularity of your name over time by entering it on the bottom right of this page on the Social Security site.

     Have fun. But don't let it take time away from your grandchildren ... er, Sophia, or Jayden.

Monday, May 16, 2011

A New Seinfeld Sighting

      If you're a Seinfeld fan, you know that the comedian hasn't really come up with any new material in this millennium. Not that there's anything wrong with that. The humor he produced in the 1980s and 1990s will last a lifetime.

     Last week Jerry Seinfeld unveiled a website -- jerryseinfeld.com -- that features the best of short Seinfeld takes from over the years. Clips with Johnny Carson and David Letterman. Parts of his old standup gigs. Bits from more recent routines. The idea of the website is to offer three different items a day from the Seinfeld archive. So you check it out every day, and you can get a different dose of Jerry Seinfeld.

     On the website, if you click on the bottom right, you'll also find his current tour dates:  in Las Vegas this coming weekend, then going to Europe; and later in Texas, California and a few other locations, finishing up in Indianapolis on July 23.

      Of course, Seinfeld's career peaked with his TV show. (It doesn't seem as though there are any clips from the show featured on the website.) And all of us Seinfeld fans have our favorite episodes, our favorite clips, our favorite quotes:

      "No soup for you!"

     "That must've been one magic loogie."

     "I'm gonna hire you as my latex salesman? I don't think so."

     "It was a million to one shot, doc, a million to one!"

     "I'm not a lesbian. I hate men, but I'm not a lesbian."

     I tried to copy one of my favorite Seinfeld TV show clips here, but the youtube gods wouldn't let me. But you can follow this link to see some Seinfeld bloopers, which offer a few of the funniest moments of all.

     It seems that Seinfeld appeals more to men than women. Almost every one of my friends loves the comedian, and the show, whereas many women seem to be able to take him or leave him. Am I wrong about that?

     I understand that Jerry Seinfeld is male and looks at the world from a male point of view. But Elaine is a strong female voice on the show. Here's another link, this time to the best of Elaine Benes.

     Plus, Jerry Seinfeld's act is pretty clean, as far as comics go. He doesn't do toilet jokes or reflexively resort to the F word. His TV show does deal with sex -- actually, pretty much all the time -- and includes topics such as gay sex, masturbation, one-night stands, large breasts, etc. But the show handles these topics in a tasteful and reasonably intelligent way. (At least I think so. Maybe I'm wrong about that, too? I dunno. I assume that women not not as keen on dirty jokes as men are.)

     Anyway, I for one am setting up the Seinfeld site on my Bookmark list. From now on, it's gonna give me my laugh of the day.

Saturday, May 14, 2011

The Boss, Part II

     In 1952, my two older siblings were in grade school, and my sister Nancy had left for kindergarten. My mother must have seen that freedom was just around the corner, when all her kids were finally in school, so she decided I had to go to nursery school -- and I was therefore the only child in my family to enjoy the advantages of early education.

     We lived in the New York suburbs, near the College of New Rochelle, and the sisters at this Catholic institution had opened a nursery school. You didn't have to be Catholic to go there, but it helped, and so my mother signed me up.

     I was excited about going to school. My brother and two sisters went to school every day, and I didn't want to be left behind. So my mother bought me a new outfit, and a little knapsack, and every day she drove me over to New Rochelle. She'd park the car, walk me by the hand over to the playground and put me in the capable hands of the nuns.

     At first I found school a little unsettling. I didn't know any of the kids. I was especially wary of two big Irish kids, Billy and Colin, who swaggered through the playground, throwing sand at the girls. I was also intimidated by the nuns as they swirled around in their big black and white habits. And I didn't want to have to lay my head down on the table and take a nap at 11 a.m. I was never tired. I didn't want to take a nap!

     One day my mother decided I could take the bus. She walked with me up the block from our house to the main cross street. I had on a new jacket to ward off the September chill, and a hat with earmuffs. When not in use, which was most of the time, the earmuffs were tied back over the top of the hat, with the fur showing on the outside. It was pretty cool. Already, in nursery school, I was trying to look cool.

     However, in my heart I wasn't cool at all. I was kind of shy, and I didn't know if I liked the big uncaring world beyond my neighborhood. When the bus pulled up to our corner, and the door opened, I stared at the three big steps that led into the cavern of the bus -- and burst out crying.

     My mother looked in my face, then pulled me close and gave me a warm hug, reassuring me and telling me that everything was going to be fine.

     I looked back at her, took a deep breath, then turned back to the bus. I climbed up one step, two steps, and then I peered down the length of the bus -- a big empty space with strange little faces peering out from behind the backs of the seats. I could hear the rumble of the motor, and feel the vibrations in the bus. I looked down at the floor, staring at the little ribs in the black runner that led down the aisle between the seats. Then I turned back to my mom and burst into tears once again. My mom looked over my shoulder at the bus driver and gave a nervous laugh. "I don't understand," she said. "He did fine in school all last week."

     My mother finally took me off the bus and walked me back to the house. I missed that day of school. The next day she drove me to school again.

     I didn't like nap time at school, but I did like recess. The playground was paved over with asphalt and surrounded by a chain-link fence. A single tree towered over the play area. It provided plenty of shade over the sandbox. And it had several low, spreading branches which were fun to climb. I liked to scramble up to the second or third branch of the tree and survey the playground, pretending the school was my castle and I was king of of the playground. From my perch, Billy and Colin didn't scare me. And I also noticed a girl, Wendy, who had pigtails and lots of teeth and a dirty face, and was clearly tougher than the other girls and seemed to boss them around.

     There was a storage shed at one end of the playground where we kept bats and balls and blocks and pirate paraphernalia. And also a step ladder. One day I brought out the ladder "Hey, let's play fireman!" I called.

     A couple of boys came over and helped me carry the ladder over to the tree. We looked around at the girls, asking for a volunteer to climb up into the tree and let us rescue her. We needed a damsel in distress.

     Most of the girls either ignored us, or shook their heads, indicating there was no way they were climbing into the tree. But then Wendy stepped forward, saying she would volunteer. Before I could even say anything, she jumped up onto the first branch, then scrambled higher and settled onto a branch. Then she started yelling, "Help. Fire! Help! Help!

     Billy and Colin ran over and jumped into the sandbox and threw sand around, pretending to douse the flames. I positioned the ladder against the tree, ran up the steps, climbed onto Wendy's branch and helped her climb down to the safety of the sandbox.

     We started playing fireman every day at recess. Wendy always volunteered to be our damsel in distress, and I was always the fireman who saved her. Wendy and I became friends, and we climbed the tree together, and played fireman, and then Wendy started to sit next to me in the classroom and she began to call me "Sir."

     "You don't have to call me 'Sir,'" I told her.

     "I like to," she replied.

     "So do you like me?"

     "I like your hat," she said.

     With Wendy at my side, I became recognized as the fire chief. Other kids, even Billy and Colin, deferred to me in the sandbox. In the classroom, Wendy and I were picked to hand out supplies, or to demonstrate a project. We were pressed to the front of the room for story time, and when I was picked as one of the kickball captains, I always chose Wendy as the first person to be on my team.

     Eventually, I came up with enough courage to start taking the bus. I was then instantly qualified to join the elite group of boys -- including Billy and Colin -- who made fun of kids who got a ride to school from their parents because they were too "little" to take the bus.

     But one day, Billy and Colin cornered me in the bathroom to challenge my new-found authority at nursery school. I tried to bluff my way through. I reminded them that I was the one who picked kickball players -- and no one wanted to be among the last chosen. I mentioned Wendy, and how the two of us were the prime players in the fireman game. The two boys backed off, but I could tell the challenge wasn't over. I was not the biggest or the baddest kid in nursery school. I had to think of something.

     Over the next few days, as the boys kept eying me, I stuck close to Wendy. I knew instinctively that the only reason I was a big shot in nursery school was because Wendy liked me. Nevertheless, I liked being boss -- being called on by the teacher, leading the kids on the playground, having Wendy call me "Sir."

     Billy and Colin found me up in the tree, at recess a few days later. They pressed me about why I got to boss people around. Why did I always have to be the fire chief?

     I finally thought of my brother, and our little escapade in the playhouse in our backyard. And so I looked Billy in the eye, and gave Colin a cold stare, and then I told them in conspiratorial tones : Okay, you win. You can be bosses.

     They nodded in agreement, as though I'd finally seen the light.

     So, I told them with as much authority as I could muster, that I was appointing both of them assistant fire chiefs. They both smiled; they'd confronted me and gotten what they wanted. What they didn't realize was that by accepting their appointments as assistants, they were acknowledging that I was the top chief.

     And so it happened that my two buddies settled for being little bosses. I took over as the big boss. And Wendy kept calling me "Sir."