I retired to Pennsylvania because we had some family in the area, the cost of living is less than our old home in metropolitan New York, the winters are a little warmer, and it's not so far away that we had to adjust to a different landscape, or a strange new lifestyle.
My one fear about moving to Pennsylvania was that there wouldn't be other older people for us to make friends. I thought: They've all moved to Florida! And somehow it seemed dispiriting to be moving into a place where everyone else was moving out.
Well, I actually found there are plenty of people who haven't moved to Florida. Lots of seniors are still around to populate the pickleball courts, attend the theater and musical venues, participate in the senior learning programs.
I saw an article last week Are Snowbirds Coming Home? by CNBC's Kelly Evans. She says the 2020s could mark the end of an era "for the snowbelt-to-sunbelt migration which has been the distinctive feature of U. S. population shifts over the past 50 years."
Why? The South is getting too hot.
Today's most popular place to retire is Florida. Warm weather. Low taxes. Lots of golf courses. Plenty of beaches. What's not to like? Florida is followed by Arizona, then Texas and the Carolinas.
But now Florida and Texas are pummeled by more and more tropical storms. And Arizona is roasting in 110-degree heat.
In addition to heat and storms, many Sunbelt cities are plagued with rising home-insurance premiums and home-repair costs, along with more and more traffic. Also, real-estate prices have soared, negating much of the cost savings of relocating from the North.
So will retirees really want to move into an area where rising flood waters force them to evacuate? Will they want to bake in the hot sun of the Southwest? And then have to pay extra for the pleasure?
Climate journalist Abraham Lustgarten says that because the climate is getting hotter, Buffalo, NY (believe it or not!), "may feel in a few decades like Tempe, Ariz., does today." Meanwhile, Tempe will be sweating in 120-degree temperatures.
He also says that fresh water will be in short supply throughout the West and much of the South. Megafires will threaten the Sunbelt from Georgia to Texas to California.
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| The Old Sunbelt |
So now experts predict the recent migration of retirees toward the coasts, and toward warmer weather, will reverse. Instead of retiring to Florida or Arizona, people will head north. They will seek cooler summers. They will avoid fire-prone regions and shy away from low-lying areas subject to flooding.
So where are people going to retire? Kelly Evans suggests the Midwest, where the cost-of-living remains more affordable, winters will be less severe, and summers will offer beautiful 80-degree afternoons. She says Cleveland may be a draw for future retirees.
Jesse Keenan, a Harvard climate professor, points to Duluth, Minn. as a promising location. The land of a thousand lakes already ranks high on many retirement lists for its low crime rate and great medical care (think Mayo Clinic).
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| The New Sunbelt |
Lustgarten also says the migration from California to coastal Oregon and Washington will likely continue as people look for a more temperate climate. And the Northwest poses less risk from rising sea levels.
Wisconsin and Michigan offer a climate that will only get more temperate, verdant and inviting. Lustgarten predicts a renaissance for currently downtrodden Detroit.
Vermont, Maine and upstate New York may also attract more retirees, for the same reasons. Will Buffalo become the new Boca Raton? Syracuse the new San Diego?
Maybe that's getting ahead of things. But I did see one figure recently. After experiencing small population declines earlier in the 2000s, Pennsylvania is starting to grow again, led by gains in the area where I live, the southeastern part of the state around Philadelphia.
Which reminds me. Last winter, for the first time, we didn't have to call out the snowplow, not even once.
11 comments:
I used to think that eventually Art and I would sell our place near Seattle and move permanently to Tucson. Not any more. We've got the best of both worlds now and will enjoy it while we can. Also, Tom, it's good to see your post!
Interesting post. I saw that temperatures approached 60C in the Middle East yesterday. It's scarry.
I love the temperate climate here in the Pacific Northwest, but it rains all the time. Pass the word, please. :-)
Florida never interested me not because of their increasing temperatures or sea levels but because of the crowds. It is much too crowded for my sanity. I love living out in the rural Midwest where I can drive tens of miles without touching a gas or brake pedal in my car using my cruise control. Where I grew up, there still to this day isn't a stoplight or fast food restaurant in the entire county. I would hate to see that spoiled by global warming and an influx of Floridians.
Linda -- You have the best of both worlds! And thanks for your comment about the post -- I'm only posting sporadically these days. DJan -- Okay, I will make sure everyone knows about the terrible wet rainy weather in the Northwest so all those people in California will stay in California.
Hey Tom! I'm with Linda! Nice to see your post and hear what's on your mind. My Thom and I sort of agree with Linda but we don't have a permanent place in the north--we travel with the weather--and only live half the time in the desert southwest. And actually, from what I've read (and observed) it's likely impossible to guess where and when weather will be perfect for the future. The northwest has had more rain and/or flooding than usual through the winter, and the south has had hotter and then cooler temps than usual. Fires and flooding seem to be all over the place. It's really anybodies guess. I don't think any of us can rightly predict how weather will unfold in the future. We humans are messing with (and mostly ignoring!) what we are doing to the planet and there will be consequences. At this point I think the best thing is to find a place where you are happy (and it sounds like you have) and make the most of it. ~Kahty
Tom we're seeing summers here in Newfoundland that are breaking all records and our province is not equipped for it at all. You didn't mention the forest fires which are annual events now with the smoke often killing the vulnerable. Many of my acquaintances maintained winter homes in Arizona but all have bailed. And friends in Florida are nervous of the weather and properties floating in the forecasted rising tides.
XO
WWW
I live in southwest PA and had always intended to move to a more urban area in my retirement. Now that I am actually retired, though, I may stay in this area. I plan to sell my house in the next year or so, and will rent an apartment for a year while I travel around to decide. Good to see your post!
Nina
Very interesting post - thank you. But so little attention is given to weather cycles if 30 years to 70 years -- well, humanity's actual written records are really quite short. I often think of a news article.that i saved when i was a younger adult in the 1980s-- experts were very certain that we were about to enter another Ice Age.
Interesting post. I live in Phoenix and cannot believe how hot it's getting. Back in the day, we cooled off at night and there were always monsoons in the summer. We have had so much growth from people moving here mostly from Cali and Washington and Oregon areas. As a result our housing prices have sky rocketed. Phoenix is no longer a place for retirees to come. The average home that is decent is over 500,000. Add interest rates and the monthly payment is ridiculous.
That said, Winter and Spring are a dream here. Food scene is good, art and entertainment is better, recreation is phenomenal and the landscape is stunning.
Hello, I just noticed your post. I live in Hawaii where temperatures range from 55F-89F. Not bad at all. I lived abroad for 7 years and like Hawaii the most.
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