tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-626594980028435818.post4956381207637071316..comments2024-03-28T18:11:40.841-04:00Comments on Sightings Over Sixty: Think About ItTomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08611148987085476580noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-626594980028435818.post-77344520994617188172015-11-15T18:23:38.468-05:002015-11-15T18:23:38.468-05:00Actually, Tom, System 1 and System 2 are only Tetl...Actually, Tom, System 1 and System 2 are only Tetlock's "central tenants" in that they're central to his argument. He has taken this understanding from Daniel Kahneman's book, Thinking Fast and Slow which is a fine summary of a large body of work, a lot of which is Kahneman's own. Kahneman attributes the terms System 1 and Syetem 2 to psychologists Keith Stanovich and Richard West.<br /><br />Basically, Tetlock's work is related to Systems 1 and 2 mostly in terms of how he uses them for predictions. Besides his current book, he's also known for this work in his 2005 book Expert Political Predictions.<br /><br />Let's just say you've been very generous with the credit you've given to him.<br /><br />As for the Algebra I problem:<br /><br />Let X be the cost of the ball, so<br />X + $1.00 is the cost of the bat.<br /><br />Together, both cost $1.10, so<br /><br />$1.10 = X + (x + $1.00)<br /><br />The equation reduces down to<br /><br />$1.10 = 2X + $1.00, so<br />$.10 = 2X, so<br />$.05 = X<br /><br /><br />Darkseasnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-626594980028435818.post-56007363159384719832015-11-15T12:26:38.336-05:002015-11-15T12:26:38.336-05:00Now, this is the kind of thinking we should all en...Now, this is the kind of thinking we should all engage in, at any age. Great example, btw.Rosaria Williamshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03133147851332084180noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-626594980028435818.post-43569200197244023952015-11-15T09:37:35.579-05:002015-11-15T09:37:35.579-05:00If the ball cost 10 cents, then the bat would cost...If the ball cost 10 cents, then the bat would cost $1.10, and together they would cost $1.20. But if the ball cast 5 cents, then the bat would cost $1.05, and together they would cost $1.10. It's a tenth-grade algebra problem ... one that I got wrong at first as well, which is why I found it so interesting.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08611148987085476580noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-626594980028435818.post-24871298005240695072015-11-14T22:01:40.978-05:002015-11-14T22:01:40.978-05:00The problem often is reading too quickly and jumpi...The problem often is reading too quickly and jumping to a conclusion based on System 1 thinking. Meryl Baerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13482532818278685217noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-626594980028435818.post-60847614957586095392015-11-14T16:33:24.118-05:002015-11-14T16:33:24.118-05:00I'm afraid I don't even seem to HAVE a Sys...I'm afraid I don't even seem to HAVE a System 2. I don't see why the correct answer isn't ten cents. I'll wait for my mathematician husband to explain it to me. :-)DJanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07152183871573797791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-626594980028435818.post-26360073711312889682015-11-14T16:29:11.499-05:002015-11-14T16:29:11.499-05:00Well, I knew ten cents wasn't the right answer...Well, I knew ten cents wasn't the right answer (any points for that much?) but I had trouble thinking through how to get the correct answer so I guess my system 2 needs some work.Olgahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00692441479616299920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-626594980028435818.post-41218099215911511782015-11-14T13:53:20.711-05:002015-11-14T13:53:20.711-05:00You're right. Good post for me to read on a Sa...You're right. Good post for me to read on a Saturday morning.Linda Myershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05706455533282204519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-626594980028435818.post-59910523849879124372015-11-14T12:04:35.200-05:002015-11-14T12:04:35.200-05:00Much food for thought. We need brain exercises and...Much food for thought. We need brain exercises and critical thinking skills more as we age.<br /><br />Thank you Tom.<br /><br />XO<br />WWWWisewebwomanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15281689872840844191noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-626594980028435818.post-48292627140387670582015-11-14T11:56:02.291-05:002015-11-14T11:56:02.291-05:00If one is a builder, who has been building near im...If one is a builder, who has been building near impossible construction sites for decades,successfully, then if that person said he could build a wall, I would believe him.<br />If the other person, who has been a habitual liar her entire lifetime (tells her daughter the Benghazi attack was due to terrorists, then tells the public and the survivors of the people who got killed it was due to a fictitious video)then if she told me she was going to give everyone free college, I'd know she was again blowing smoke up my ass.<br /><br />Simple deduction.<br /><br />Thanks for sharing, Tom.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com